Friday, March 23, 2012
Friday, March 9, 2012
Obama Caught On Hot Mic Talking About Maine Election Fraud and Ron Paul (Most Likely Fake)
I have no idea whether this is legitimate or not, but the rumor is that the audio in this YouTube clip is of Obama talking on his cell next to a hot mic. It does sound a lot like him, but it's most likely someone trying to sound like Obama. I haven't been able to find any details on it so far. If you know anything about this clip, please provide details in my comments section. So far I'm quite skeptical.
Transcript:
Obama: "Rick doesn't have a chance."
Silence
Obama: "The powers that be want it to be Romney... and it looks like that's what's going to happen."
Silence
Obama: "And, well you know how that goes... Look what they did up in Maine."
Silence
Obama: "They wanted Paul out of the picture quickly and we all know what happened there."
Silence
Obama: "I can't say I blame them."
Silence
Obama: "Well it's a moot point now anyhow."
"He's done."
Transcript:
Obama: "Rick doesn't have a chance."
Silence
Obama: "The powers that be want it to be Romney... and it looks like that's what's going to happen."
Silence
Obama: "And, well you know how that goes... Look what they did up in Maine."
Silence
Obama: "They wanted Paul out of the picture quickly and we all know what happened there."
Silence
Obama: "I can't say I blame them."
Silence
Obama: "Well it's a moot point now anyhow."
"He's done."
Saturday, March 3, 2012
Myth: A Candidate Has To Win Five States To Get The GOP Nomination
Ok, in a way a candidate does have to win five states, but not in the way most people and the main stream media thinks you have to. According to the RNC rules, winning a state is considered "getting the plurality of delegates". A lot of people keep saying Ron Paul can't win because he isn't winning any states. False. He has won at least 5 states and probably more. He is winning on delegate count though. Winning the popular vote doesn't do you much good if you haven't won with delegate counts.
Republican National Committee Rule - RULE NO. 40
Nominations
(b) Each candidate for nomination for
President of the United States and Vice President of the
United States shall demonstrate the support of a
plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more
states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of
that candidate for nomination
Source: http://www.gop.com/images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf
(scroll down to Rule No 40)
Republican National Committee Rule - RULE NO. 40
Nominations
(b) Each candidate for nomination for
President of the United States and Vice President of the
United States shall demonstrate the support of a
plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more
states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of
that candidate for nomination
Source: http://www.gop.com/images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf
(scroll down to Rule No 40)
GOP Primary Schedule and Delegates
Rules affecting delegates:
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their delegate selection primaries, caucuses, and conventions on Wednesday 1 February 2012. All other jurisdictions may begin their processes on the Tuesday 6 March 2012. Violating this directive results in 50% of the delegates to the national convention being stripped. Iowa's, Colorado's, Washington's, Minnesota's, and Maine's delegates are not tied to their caucus dates, so these states including Iowa will not suffer a 50% penalty despite holding caucuses before said dates.
ALL nominating states allocating delegates based on statewide vote prior to April 1, 2012 must allocate delegates PROPORTIONALLY.
DELEGATE TOTALS INCLUDES EFFECTS OF THE PENALTY
CAUCUS STATES ARE DENOTED AS SUCH
TOTAL DELEGATES AFTER PENALTIES: 2,287
BOUND DELEGATES: 1,734
UNBOUND DELEGATES: 553
DELEGATES NEEDED TO WIN: 1144
DATE -------- STATE ---------- DELEGATES ----- # BOUND/UNBOUND
Jan 3 -------------- Iowa ---------- 28 delegates (caucus) -------- 28/0
Jan 10 --- New Hampshire ------ 12 delegates ------------------- 12/0
Jan 21 --- South Carolina -------- 25 delegates ------------------- 25/0
Jan 31 --------- Florida ------------ 50 delegates ------------------- 50/0
Late Jan ---- Louisiana ------------ 46 delegates ------------------ 18/28*
Feb 4 ---------- Nevada ----------- 28 delegates (caucus) --------- 25/3
Feb 4-11 ------ Maine ------------- 24 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/24
Feb 7 ---------- Colorado ---------- 36 delegates (caucus) --------- 36/0
Feb 7 ---------- Minnesota --------- 40 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/40
Feb 28 --------- Michigan ----------- 30 delegates ------------------- 30/0
Feb 28 --------- Arizona ------------ 29 delegates -------------------- 29/0
Mar 3 -------Washington ----------- 43 delegates (caucus) --------- 23/20
Mar 6 ------- Alaska ---------------- 27 delegates (caucus) --------- 24/3
Mar 6 ------- Georgia --------------- 76 delegates -------------------- 76/0
Mar 6 -------- Idaho ----------------- 32 delegates (caucus) --------- 32/0
Mar 6 -------Massachusetts -------- 41 delegates -------------------- 38/3
Mar 6 ------- North Dakota -------- 28 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/28
Mar 6 --------- Ohio ---------------- 66 delegates ---------------------- 0/66
Mar 6 -------Oklahoma ------------ 43 delegates --------------------- 40/3
Mar 6 ------- Tennessee ------------ 58 delegates --------------------- 55/3
Mar 6 ------- Vermont ------------- 17 delegates ---------------------- 17/0
Mar 6 -------- Virginia ------------- 50 delegates ---------------------- 50/0
Mar 6-10 ----- Wyoming ---------- 29 delegates (caucus) ----------- 0/29
Mar 10 --------- Kansas ----------- 40 delegates (caucus) ------------ 40/0
Mar 10 --- U.S. Virgin Islands --- 9 delegates (caucus) ------------- 6/3
Mar 13 ------- Alabama ----------- 50 delegates ----------------------- 47/3
Mar 13 ------- Hawaii ------------- 20 delegates (caucus) ------------ 17/3
Mar 13 ----- Mississippi ---------- 39 delegates ----------------------- 36/3
Mar 17 ------- Missouri ----------- 52 delegates (caucus) ------------ 49/3
Mar 20 ------- Illinois ------------- 69 delegates ----------------------- 56/13
Apr 3 ---------- Maryland --------- 37 delegates ----------------------- 37/0
Apr 3 ------- Texas ----------------- 155 delegates -------------------- 152/3
Apr 3 ------ Washington, D.C. --- 19 delegates ----------------------- 16/3
Apr 3 -------- Wisconsin ---------- 42 delegates ----------------------- 42/0
Apr 24 ------- Connecticut -------- 28 delegates ----------------------- 25/3
Apr 24 ------- Delaware ----------- 17 delegates ----------------------- 17/0
Apr 24 ------- New York ----------- 95 delegates ---------------------- 81/14
Apr 24 ------- Pennsylvania ------- 72 delegates ---------------------- 0/72
Apr 24 ------- Rhode Island ------- 19 delegates ---------------------- 16/3
May 8 -------- Indiana -------------- 46 delegates ---------------------- 27/19
May 8 ------ North Carolina ------- 55 delegates ---------------------- 55/0
May 8 ------- West Virginia -------- 31 delegates ---------------------- 28/3
May 15 -------- Nebraska ----------- 35 delegates ---------------------- 32/3
May 15 -------- Oregon ------------- 29 delegates ---------------------- 26/3
May 22 --------- Arkansas ---------- 36 delegates ---------------------- 33/3
May 22 --------- Kentucky ---------- 45 delegates --------------------- 42/3
June 5 ----------- California --------- 172 delegates -------------------- 169/3
June 5 ----------- Montana ----------- 26 delegates ---------------------- 0/26
June 5 ----------- New Jersey -------- 50 delegates ---------------------- 50/0
June 5 --------- South Dakota ------- 28 delegates ---------------------- 25/3
June 26 ----------- Utah --------------- 40 delegates --------------------- 40/0
TO BE ANNOUNCED (UNBOUND):
American Samoa --------------- 9 delegates
Guam ---------------------------- 9 delegates
Northern Mariana Islands ----- 9 delegates
Puerto Rico --------------------- 23 delegates
Notes:
* Louisiana has a somewhat confusing Caucus-then-Primary process to select delegates, the caucus being some as-yet-announced time in late January and the primary being on March 24. Unpledged delegates may be allocated to a candidate on the basis of the primary vote if the candidate receive more than 25% of the vote in the primary on Mar. 24, otherwise they are unpledged. (Republican Party of Louisiana, State Convention Rule 20b)
Open Primaries/Caucuses
(Where Independents and Democrats Can Vote)
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Hawaii (caucus)
Idaho (caucus)
Indiana
Iowa* (caucus)
Massachusetts**
Michigan
Minnesota (caucus)
Mississippi
Missouri (caucus)
New Hampshire
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio***
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Washington (caucus)
Wisconsin
*Iowa caucus open to anyone who wants to register Republican at the caucus location
**Massachusetts primary open to unaffiliated voters, not Democrats
***Ohio primary allows voter to change registration at the polling place by completing a statement confirming the change in his/her political party affiliation (source)
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their delegate selection primaries, caucuses, and conventions on Wednesday 1 February 2012. All other jurisdictions may begin their processes on the Tuesday 6 March 2012. Violating this directive results in 50% of the delegates to the national convention being stripped. Iowa's, Colorado's, Washington's, Minnesota's, and Maine's delegates are not tied to their caucus dates, so these states including Iowa will not suffer a 50% penalty despite holding caucuses before said dates.
ALL nominating states allocating delegates based on statewide vote prior to April 1, 2012 must allocate delegates PROPORTIONALLY.
DELEGATE TOTALS INCLUDES EFFECTS OF THE PENALTY
CAUCUS STATES ARE DENOTED AS SUCH
TOTAL DELEGATES AFTER PENALTIES: 2,287
BOUND DELEGATES: 1,734
UNBOUND DELEGATES: 553
DELEGATES NEEDED TO WIN: 1144
DATE -------- STATE ---------- DELEGATES ----- # BOUND/UNBOUND
Jan 3 -------------- Iowa ---------- 28 delegates (caucus) -------- 28/0
Jan 10 --- New Hampshire ------ 12 delegates ------------------- 12/0
Jan 21 --- South Carolina -------- 25 delegates ------------------- 25/0
Jan 31 --------- Florida ------------ 50 delegates ------------------- 50/0
Late Jan ---- Louisiana ------------ 46 delegates ------------------ 18/28*
Feb 4 ---------- Nevada ----------- 28 delegates (caucus) --------- 25/3
Feb 4-11 ------ Maine ------------- 24 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/24
Feb 7 ---------- Colorado ---------- 36 delegates (caucus) --------- 36/0
Feb 7 ---------- Minnesota --------- 40 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/40
Feb 28 --------- Michigan ----------- 30 delegates ------------------- 30/0
Feb 28 --------- Arizona ------------ 29 delegates -------------------- 29/0
Mar 3 -------Washington ----------- 43 delegates (caucus) --------- 23/20
Mar 6 ------- Alaska ---------------- 27 delegates (caucus) --------- 24/3
Mar 6 ------- Georgia --------------- 76 delegates -------------------- 76/0
Mar 6 -------- Idaho ----------------- 32 delegates (caucus) --------- 32/0
Mar 6 -------Massachusetts -------- 41 delegates -------------------- 38/3
Mar 6 ------- North Dakota -------- 28 delegates (caucus) --------- 0/28
Mar 6 --------- Ohio ---------------- 66 delegates ---------------------- 0/66
Mar 6 -------Oklahoma ------------ 43 delegates --------------------- 40/3
Mar 6 ------- Tennessee ------------ 58 delegates --------------------- 55/3
Mar 6 ------- Vermont ------------- 17 delegates ---------------------- 17/0
Mar 6 -------- Virginia ------------- 50 delegates ---------------------- 50/0
Mar 6-10 ----- Wyoming ---------- 29 delegates (caucus) ----------- 0/29
Mar 10 --------- Kansas ----------- 40 delegates (caucus) ------------ 40/0
Mar 10 --- U.S. Virgin Islands --- 9 delegates (caucus) ------------- 6/3
Mar 13 ------- Alabama ----------- 50 delegates ----------------------- 47/3
Mar 13 ------- Hawaii ------------- 20 delegates (caucus) ------------ 17/3
Mar 13 ----- Mississippi ---------- 39 delegates ----------------------- 36/3
Mar 17 ------- Missouri ----------- 52 delegates (caucus) ------------ 49/3
Mar 20 ------- Illinois ------------- 69 delegates ----------------------- 56/13
Apr 3 ---------- Maryland --------- 37 delegates ----------------------- 37/0
Apr 3 ------- Texas ----------------- 155 delegates -------------------- 152/3
Apr 3 ------ Washington, D.C. --- 19 delegates ----------------------- 16/3
Apr 3 -------- Wisconsin ---------- 42 delegates ----------------------- 42/0
Apr 24 ------- Connecticut -------- 28 delegates ----------------------- 25/3
Apr 24 ------- Delaware ----------- 17 delegates ----------------------- 17/0
Apr 24 ------- New York ----------- 95 delegates ---------------------- 81/14
Apr 24 ------- Pennsylvania ------- 72 delegates ---------------------- 0/72
Apr 24 ------- Rhode Island ------- 19 delegates ---------------------- 16/3
May 8 -------- Indiana -------------- 46 delegates ---------------------- 27/19
May 8 ------ North Carolina ------- 55 delegates ---------------------- 55/0
May 8 ------- West Virginia -------- 31 delegates ---------------------- 28/3
May 15 -------- Nebraska ----------- 35 delegates ---------------------- 32/3
May 15 -------- Oregon ------------- 29 delegates ---------------------- 26/3
May 22 --------- Arkansas ---------- 36 delegates ---------------------- 33/3
May 22 --------- Kentucky ---------- 45 delegates --------------------- 42/3
June 5 ----------- California --------- 172 delegates -------------------- 169/3
June 5 ----------- Montana ----------- 26 delegates ---------------------- 0/26
June 5 ----------- New Jersey -------- 50 delegates ---------------------- 50/0
June 5 --------- South Dakota ------- 28 delegates ---------------------- 25/3
June 26 ----------- Utah --------------- 40 delegates --------------------- 40/0
TO BE ANNOUNCED (UNBOUND):
American Samoa --------------- 9 delegates
Guam ---------------------------- 9 delegates
Northern Mariana Islands ----- 9 delegates
Puerto Rico --------------------- 23 delegates
Notes:
* Louisiana has a somewhat confusing Caucus-then-Primary process to select delegates, the caucus being some as-yet-announced time in late January and the primary being on March 24. Unpledged delegates may be allocated to a candidate on the basis of the primary vote if the candidate receive more than 25% of the vote in the primary on Mar. 24, otherwise they are unpledged. (Republican Party of Louisiana, State Convention Rule 20b)
Open Primaries/Caucuses
(Where Independents and Democrats Can Vote)
Alabama
Arkansas
Georgia
Hawaii (caucus)
Idaho (caucus)
Indiana
Iowa* (caucus)
Massachusetts**
Michigan
Minnesota (caucus)
Mississippi
Missouri (caucus)
New Hampshire
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio***
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Washington (caucus)
Wisconsin
*Iowa caucus open to anyone who wants to register Republican at the caucus location
**Massachusetts primary open to unaffiliated voters, not Democrats
***Ohio primary allows voter to change registration at the polling place by completing a statement confirming the change in his/her political party affiliation (source)
Common Misconception About GOP Primary Delegate Counts - Ron Paul's Real Counts
"Delegates are assigned according to how people voted." is a common misconception about the primary delegate selection process.
In some states, yes, that is true. In others, it's a bunch of crap. I keep seeing Ron Paul's delegate counts on various main stream media station that have it all wrong. Fox has it at 23 and CNN has it at about 30. These numbers are completely inaccurate and show that the main stream media doesn't have a clue about how to calculate delegate counts.
Even though we didn't win the straw poll vote, Ron Paul is probably getting most of the delegates from IA, MN, CO, MA, and WA. In NV, they can vote to unbind the delegates are the state convention, so there is a possibility he could get most of those as well. There is also a strong possibility that he could pick up quite a few from WY.
In IA there are 28 possible delegates. It sounds like the organization was good, so Ron Paul could get around 20..
In NH, there are 10 possible BOUND delegates, Ron Paul got 3. Huntsman got 1. Since he dropped out that delegate is UNBOUND. We may get that one. NH has BOUND delegates, so the only way Ron Paul could get some of these is if it goes to a brokered convention and there are multiple rounds of voting..
In SC, Ron Paul didn't get any delegates. Grinch got 23 BOUND delegates. If Grinch drops out soon they become UNBOUND. If Ron Paul supporters are organized they could end up picking up some/most of them.
In FL, Ron Paul didn't get any and probably wont unless this goes to a brokered convention and there are multiple rounds of voting. In this case, they become UNBOUND and can vote for whoever they want.
In NV, we got 5 BOUND delegates, but most of the delegates that got selected are Ron Paul supporters. There is a possibility that these selected delegates can vote to change the rules at the state convention to UNBIND all delegates. In this case Ron Paul could pick up most of the delegates. NV has 28 BOUND delegates. If they become UNBOUND at the state convention, Ron Paul would probably have at least 15 of them.
In CO, it sounds like Ron Paul got about 50% of the UNBOUND delegates. So Ron Paul will probably have 18 of the 36. If Santorum drops out, Ron Paul could get a few more.
In MN, is sounds like Ron Paul got over 75% of the delegates. So we'll probably get 30 of the 40 UNBOUND delegates.
In Maine, Ron Paul will probably get 75% of the delegates. So Ron Paul will probably get 18 of the 24 UNBOUND delegates.
AZ is winner take all with BOUND delegates. Ron Paul probably won't get any because Romney won the state. However, if this goes to a brokered convention and the delegates become UNBOUND Ron Paul could get some of them if his supporters were organized.
In Michigan, Ron Paul didn't get any delegates, but there is a possibility that Ron Paul could pick up the delegates that become UNBOUND if Santorum drops out. Santorum got 14 delegates. If it goes to a brokered convention Ron Paul could even pick up some of Romney's delegates.
In WY, Ron Paul got at least 6 of the 29 possible delegates. However, since this is a state with UNBOUND delegates, Ron Paul will most likely get more like 14.
In WA, there are 40 UNBOUND delegates. Based on ground reports, Ron Paul will probably get most of the delegates. Let's say he gets 25.
So if no one drops out, a fairly accurate estimate of Ron Paul's delegate count is: IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (0) + FL (0) + NV(15) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (0) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 143
If BOTH Gingrich and Santorum drop out and Ron Paul supporters are organized in becoming delegates (delegates become UNBOUND when the candidate they are BOUND to drops out), the delegate count would look something like this: IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (15/23) + FL (0) + NV(20) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (10) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 173
Of course these are just estimates, no one will know the exact count until the delegate selection process is complete. Each state has a different delegate selection process with different timelines, so the final delegate count won't be known for quite some time.If this goes to a brokered convention and all delegates become UNBOUND, Ron Paul could also get a lot of Romney's currently BOUND delegates.
CHECK BACK SOON FOR UPDATES ON THE OTHER STATES
Reality Check: What are the "real" republican delegate counts?
In some states, yes, that is true. In others, it's a bunch of crap. I keep seeing Ron Paul's delegate counts on various main stream media station that have it all wrong. Fox has it at 23 and CNN has it at about 30. These numbers are completely inaccurate and show that the main stream media doesn't have a clue about how to calculate delegate counts.
Even though we didn't win the straw poll vote, Ron Paul is probably getting most of the delegates from IA, MN, CO, MA, and WA. In NV, they can vote to unbind the delegates are the state convention, so there is a possibility he could get most of those as well. There is also a strong possibility that he could pick up quite a few from WY.
In IA there are 28 possible delegates. It sounds like the organization was good, so Ron Paul could get around 20..
In NH, there are 10 possible BOUND delegates, Ron Paul got 3. Huntsman got 1. Since he dropped out that delegate is UNBOUND. We may get that one. NH has BOUND delegates, so the only way Ron Paul could get some of these is if it goes to a brokered convention and there are multiple rounds of voting..
In SC, Ron Paul didn't get any delegates. Grinch got 23 BOUND delegates. If Grinch drops out soon they become UNBOUND. If Ron Paul supporters are organized they could end up picking up some/most of them.
In FL, Ron Paul didn't get any and probably wont unless this goes to a brokered convention and there are multiple rounds of voting. In this case, they become UNBOUND and can vote for whoever they want.
In NV, we got 5 BOUND delegates, but most of the delegates that got selected are Ron Paul supporters. There is a possibility that these selected delegates can vote to change the rules at the state convention to UNBIND all delegates. In this case Ron Paul could pick up most of the delegates. NV has 28 BOUND delegates. If they become UNBOUND at the state convention, Ron Paul would probably have at least 15 of them.
In CO, it sounds like Ron Paul got about 50% of the UNBOUND delegates. So Ron Paul will probably have 18 of the 36. If Santorum drops out, Ron Paul could get a few more.
In MN, is sounds like Ron Paul got over 75% of the delegates. So we'll probably get 30 of the 40 UNBOUND delegates.
In Maine, Ron Paul will probably get 75% of the delegates. So Ron Paul will probably get 18 of the 24 UNBOUND delegates.
AZ is winner take all with BOUND delegates. Ron Paul probably won't get any because Romney won the state. However, if this goes to a brokered convention and the delegates become UNBOUND Ron Paul could get some of them if his supporters were organized.
In Michigan, Ron Paul didn't get any delegates, but there is a possibility that Ron Paul could pick up the delegates that become UNBOUND if Santorum drops out. Santorum got 14 delegates. If it goes to a brokered convention Ron Paul could even pick up some of Romney's delegates.
In WY, Ron Paul got at least 6 of the 29 possible delegates. However, since this is a state with UNBOUND delegates, Ron Paul will most likely get more like 14.
In WA, there are 40 UNBOUND delegates. Based on ground reports, Ron Paul will probably get most of the delegates. Let's say he gets 25.
So if no one drops out, a fairly accurate estimate of Ron Paul's delegate count is: IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (0) + FL (0) + NV(15) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (0) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 143
If BOTH Gingrich and Santorum drop out and Ron Paul supporters are organized in becoming delegates (delegates become UNBOUND when the candidate they are BOUND to drops out), the delegate count would look something like this: IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (15/23) + FL (0) + NV(20) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (10) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 173
Of course these are just estimates, no one will know the exact count until the delegate selection process is complete. Each state has a different delegate selection process with different timelines, so the final delegate count won't be known for quite some time.If this goes to a brokered convention and all delegates become UNBOUND, Ron Paul could also get a lot of Romney's currently BOUND delegates.
CHECK BACK SOON FOR UPDATES ON THE OTHER STATES
Reality Check: What are the "real" republican delegate counts?
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