Saturday, March 3, 2012

Common Misconception About GOP Primary Delegate Counts - Ron Paul's Real Counts

"Delegates are assigned according to how people voted." is a common misconception about the primary delegate selection process.

In some states, yes, that is true. In others, it's a bunch of crap. I keep seeing Ron Paul's delegate counts on various main stream media station that have it all wrong. Fox has it at 23 and CNN has it at about 30. These numbers are completely inaccurate and show that the main stream media doesn't have a clue about how to calculate delegate counts. 

Even though we didn't win the straw poll vote, Ron Paul is probably getting most of the delegates from IA, MN, CO, MA, and WA. In NV, they can vote to unbind the delegates are the state convention, so there is a possibility he could get most of those as well. There is also a strong possibility that he could pick up quite a few from WY.

In IA there are 28 possible delegates. It sounds like the organization was good, so Ron Paul could get around 20..

In NH, there are 10 possible BOUND delegates, Ron Paul got 3. Huntsman got 1. Since he dropped out that delegate is UNBOUND. We may get that one. NH has BOUND delegates, so the only way Ron Paul could get some of these is if it goes to a brokered convention and there are multiple rounds of voting..

In SC, Ron Paul didn't get any delegates. Grinch got 23 BOUND delegates. If Grinch drops out soon they become UNBOUND. If Ron Paul supporters are organized they could end up picking up some/most of them.

In FL, Ron Paul didn't get any and probably wont unless this goes to a brokered convention and there are multiple rounds of voting. In this case, they become UNBOUND and can vote for whoever they want.

In NV, we got 5 BOUND delegates, but most of the delegates that got selected are Ron Paul supporters. There is a possibility that these selected delegates can vote to change the rules at the state convention to UNBIND all delegates. In this case Ron Paul could pick up most of the delegates. NV has 28 BOUND delegates. If they become UNBOUND at the state convention, Ron Paul would probably have at least 15 of them.

In CO, it sounds like Ron Paul got about 50% of the UNBOUND delegates. So Ron Paul will probably have 18 of the 36. If Santorum drops out, Ron Paul could get a few more.

In MN, is sounds like Ron Paul got over 75% of the delegates. So we'll probably get 30 of the 40 UNBOUND delegates.

In Maine, Ron Paul will probably get 75% of the delegates. So Ron Paul will probably get 18 of the 24 UNBOUND delegates.

AZ is winner take all with BOUND delegates. Ron Paul probably won't get any because Romney won the state. However, if this goes to a brokered convention and the delegates become UNBOUND Ron Paul could get some of them if his supporters were organized.

In Michigan, Ron Paul didn't get any delegates, but there is a possibility that Ron Paul could pick up the delegates that become UNBOUND if Santorum drops out. Santorum got 14 delegates. If it goes to a brokered convention Ron Paul could even pick up some of Romney's delegates.

In WY, Ron Paul got at least 6 of the 29 possible delegates. However, since this is a state with UNBOUND delegates, Ron Paul will most likely get more like 14.

In WA, there are 40 UNBOUND delegates. Based on ground reports, Ron Paul will probably get most of the delegates. Let's say he gets 25.

So if no one drops out, a fairly accurate estimate of Ron Paul's delegate count is: IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (0) + FL (0) + NV(15) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (0) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 143

If BOTH Gingrich and Santorum drop out and Ron Paul supporters are organized in becoming delegates (delegates become UNBOUND when the candidate they are BOUND to drops out), the delegate count would look something like this: IA (20) + NH (3) + SC (15/23) + FL (0) + NV(20) + CO(18) + MN(30) + ME(18) + MI (10) + AZ(0) + WY(14) + WA(25) = 173

Of course these are just estimates, no one will know the exact count until the delegate selection process is complete. Each state has a different delegate selection process with different timelines, so the final delegate count won't be known for quite some time.If this goes to a brokered convention and all delegates become UNBOUND, Ron Paul could also get a lot of Romney's currently BOUND delegates.

CHECK BACK SOON FOR UPDATES ON THE OTHER STATES

Reality Check: What are the "real" republican delegate counts?

17 comments:

  1. There is one thing that you're missing here, Joe. The same people who have been fixing the vote for Romney will fix it so Ron Paul won't get enough delegates to keep Romney from passing that magic number he needs to win. They've fixed the vote in the states that Ron Paul was supposed to win, so what makes you think they will not do the same at their states' conventions or the national?

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    1. Let's make the government an offer they can't refuse.

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    2. Yes, there definitely has been a lot of cheating and vote fixing, but we can't have a defeatist attitude and sit back and do nothing.

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    3. do we know for sure that the votes are being fixed?

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    4. Yes.. we are sure.. they have even admitted that there was some "inaccuracies" esp. in Maine... This is a serious concern for all Ron Paul supporters as I have seen this question all over Facebook. We need some type of independent committee overlooking the voting.. It SHOULD be online.. every vote should be available online to verify these votes.. They could use a number to hide the name of the voter but would still tie them to the vote. We can do it for bank accounts, why not voting?

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  2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  3. If Paul keeps this up and Santorum and Gingrich stay in the race, it may be that nobody will reach the number necessary to claim the nomination. This would work to Paul's advantage, but it is still unlikely to gain him the nomination. The GOP is in a tough spot here. Given the loyalty to Paul rather than to party, his supporters are not going to back the GOP nominee unless it is Paul. The GOP faithful seem right in their claims to Paul supporters that the Paul people are not facing reality of Paul's likely defeat, but the Paul people are just as right in telling the GOP faithful that it is Paul or Obama and nobody else has a chance. Objectively, nobody but Paul can actually beat Obama. But as he most likely will not be the nominee, it looks like four more years for Obama is almost guaranteed.

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    1. Unless he runs 3rd party.. There is a very good audio showing how things are looking far better for Paul than some expect.. here is the YT link ...

      http://youtu.be/IU2AvSwzuok

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  4. Hey author, can we get that updated delegate count now?

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    1. I'm having a hard time judging how some of the other states will probably perform in the delegate process. It was easier with the last states because the campaign gave some indications. I haven't really gotten a good feel for the other states yet. Missouri was doing pretty well until the St. Charles GOP decided to break all caucus rules and attempted to cheat Ron Paul out of the delegates from that county.

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  5. While MSM is telling you Ron Paul got 60 delegates, some hardcore RP people will try to make you believe he is 2nd or even 1st in delegates. The only realistic count you'll find on bit.ly/gopunbound

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  6. 'These numbers are completely inaccurate and show that the main stream media doesn't have a clue about how to calculate delegate counts.'

    I dont believe that for a moment. The media knows exactly what it is doing. Making sure that they are lap dogs for the party so if Ron causes an upset they can point at their delegate count this entire time with legitimacy. Im no fool. Ive watched the media since 2007 be nothing but liars and spinners.

    'Advertisements are the only truths to be relied upon in newspapers.' Thomas Jefferson

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  7. You space cadets behind Ron Paul can't count and live in a deluded world. How is that trip to the Alpha Centauri Galaxy working out for you?

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    1. Oh, neat, another champion of ignorance and name-calling who doesn't understand the political process in the United States. You are exactly why Ron Paul is DOMINATING in the caucus states. Thank you for your ignorance!

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    2. Why can't we come together as a nation to DEFEAT BARACK OBAMA?????????? Ron Paul is NOT going to get enough votes to become the nominee. If people are stubborn & hard headed going into the voting booth determined to vote for Ron Paul no matter what, well CONGRATS YOU HAVE JUST HELPED RE-ELECT OBAMA!!!!! THIS ELECTION IS ABOUT DEFEATING OBAMA, NOT GETTING MY PICK FOR PRESIDENT! I would have preferred Herman Cain, but it didn't work out, so for the greater good, I am voting for MITT ROMNEY! Please think about the bigger picture people. OUR COUNTRY & LIVES ARE AT STAKE HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  8. Rasmussen polls show if Mitt is the nominee, Obama wins in Nov by 2% points. If Paul is the nominee, he beats Obama by 1% point. For the "greater good" vote for Dr. Paul!

    Its a numbers game, join the winning team!

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  9. When y'all are ready to March on Washington and take back out Government, just let me know so I can get somebody to push my wheelchair

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